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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO1
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Tundra Esportswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 12 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 10 games
40%
Bane
Banesignature
Misha · 8 games
63%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 8 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 7 games
71%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 7 games
71%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
Misha · 7 games
57%

Tundra Esports

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 15 games
60%
Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 12 games
83%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 12 games
83%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 11 games
82%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 11 games
64%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Sneyking · 11 games
82%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 10 games
80%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
471 picks · 338 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
435 picks · 622 bans
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
365 picks · 455 bans
51%
Weaver
Weaver
361 picks · 809 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
353 picks · 188 bans
46%
Kunkka
Kunkka
287 picks · 482 bans
55%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
276 picks · 421 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
255 picks · 346 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 65%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total74% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:33
OG 34%Tundra Esports 66%
The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuragi
45% · 56 games52% · 239 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Puck
Puckbzm
52% · 259 games52% · 88 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Underlord
UnderlordATF
36% · 62 games45% · 77 games
Night StalkerNine
Night Stalker
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinTaiga
53% · 134 games49% · 142 games
Spirit BreakerSneyking
Spirit Breaker
Bane
BaneMisha
54% · 274 games55% · 239 games
WeaverFata
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 74%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1