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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа. Финал · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Taiga · 14 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 12 games
33%
Bane
Banesignature
Misha · 10 games
60%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
SumaiL · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 8 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Taiga · 8 games
63%
Razor
Razorsignature
Yuragi · 8 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
bzm · 7 games
57%

Tundra Esports

Bane
Banesignature
Fata · 15 games
80%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Fata · 15 games
60%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Skiter · 15 games
73%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 12 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
33 · 10 games
80%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Nine · 10 games
90%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Nine · 9 games
78%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
534 picks · 380 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
453 picks · 644 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
430 picks · 521 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
417 picks · 849 bans
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 179 bans
44%
Kunkka
Kunkka
332 picks · 528 bans
53%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
332 picks · 526 bans
52%
Wraith King
Wraith King
271 picks · 303 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 67%
Hero pool strength59% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 6
Model total72% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:16
OG 35%Tundra Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 47:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
44% · 91 game47% · 151 game
Queen of PainNine
Queen of Pain
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritbzm
48% · 210 games50% · 72 games
Doom33
Doom
Viper
ViperATF
41% · 62 games57% · 109 games
RazorSkiter
Razor
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTaiga
49% · 58 games51% · 168 games
WeaverSneyking
Weaver
Io
IoMisha
57% · 257 games54% · 178 games
BaneFata
Bane
Game 2prediction correct22:52
OG 36%Tundra Esports 64%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckbzm
46% · 287 games47% · 161 game
LunaSkiter
Luna
Bristleback
BristlebackYuragi
59% · 46 games60% · 148 games
Templar AssassinNine
Templar Assassin
Underlord
UnderlordATF
38% · 55 games47% · 157 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTaiga
53% · 77 games57% · 253 games
WeaverSneyking
Weaver
Bane
BaneMisha
51% · 370 games43% · 116 games
GyrocopterFata
Gyrocopter
Game 3prediction missed23:5
OG 39%Tundra Esports 61%
The model gave 61% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 23:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinbzm
49% · 126 games50% · 22 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Razor
RazorYuragi
54% · 116 games46% · 139 games
InvokerNine
Invoker
Sand King
Sand KingATF
43% · 85 games57% · 88 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorTaiga
52% · 78 games51% · 140 games
Death ProphetSneyking
Death Prophet
Chen
ChenMisha
43% · 19 games49% · 35 games
UndyingFata
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 72%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3