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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Misha · 11 games
45%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Yuragi · 9 games
56%
Oracle
Oracle
Taiga · 9 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bzm · 7 games
57%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 18 games
78%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 17 games
71%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 17 games
65%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 17 games
65%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Nine · 16 games
63%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Skiter · 14 games
86%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 13 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
738 picks · 469 bans
51%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
526 picks · 573 bans
57%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 455 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
524 picks · 381 bans
51%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
408 picks · 582 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
381 picks · 255 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
368 picks · 613 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
347 picks · 739 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head2 – 7
Model total59% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:32
OG 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenYuragi
50% · 143 games55% · 247 games
Nature's ProphetSkiter
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death Prophetbzm
50% · 453 games49% · 284 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDM
44% · 322 games57% · 208 games
Enigma33
Enigma
Monkey King
Monkey KingTaiga
51% · 294 games50% · 577 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Disruptor
DisruptorChuvash
50% · 147 games41% · 43 games
GyrocopterSneyking
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct22:30
OG 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 44:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuragi
41% · 244 games52% · 337 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
50% · 437 games48% · 144 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Undying
UndyingDM
51% · 262 games55% · 151 game
Visage33
Visage
Windranger
WindrangerChuvash
49% · 62 games54% · 548 games
TinySaksa
Tiny
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightTaiga
49% · 234 games49% · 59 games
GyrocopterSneyking
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 59%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2