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DreamLeague Season 19 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 27 games
59%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 15 games
60%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Chuvash · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
Taiga · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
bzm · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Taiga · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 9 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 9 games
78%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 34 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 25 games
52%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 24 games
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 19 games
79%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 18 games
72%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Saksa · 18 games
72%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 17 games
65%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1010 picks · 678 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
658 picks · 479 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
608 picks · 956 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
558 picks · 439 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
521 picks · 359 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1170 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
508 picks · 365 bans
56%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
501 picks · 491 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 8
Model total60% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:25
OG 44%Tundra Esports 56%
The model gave 56% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 23:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageYuragi
51% · 59 games48% · 163 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Death Prophet
Death Prophetbzm
47% · 350 games55% · 42 games
Underlord33
Underlord
Primal Beast
Primal BeastDM
48% · 229 games50% · 262 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Dark Willow
Dark WillowTaiga
49% · 54 games50% · 157 games
EnchantressAramis
Enchantress
Io
IoChuvash
49% · 124 games56% · 192 games
DisruptorSneyking
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct18:26
OG 42%Tundra Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 39:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomYuragi
52% · 275 games45% · 63 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Zeus
Zeusbzm
44% · 170 games48% · 277 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
61% · 65 games51% · 81 game
RikiNine
Riki
Techies
TechiesChuvash
52% · 72 games51% · 233 games
EnchantressSneyking
Enchantress
Clockwerk
ClockwerkTaiga
50% · 398 games47% · 326 games
SnapfireAramis
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 60%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2