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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 29 games
55%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 14 games
64%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Taiga · 13 games
62%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 13 games
54%
Tiny
Tinysignature
bzm · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
DM · 12 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 12 games
58%

Tundra Esports

Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 31 game
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 30 games
53%
Doom
Doomsignature
33 · 27 games
63%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Sneyking · 23 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 23 games
74%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 21 game
67%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Sneyking · 21 game
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 20 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
775 picks · 591 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 443 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 379 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
413 picks · 689 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
411 picks · 969 bans
57%
Undying
Undying
401 picks · 592 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
389 picks · 210 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
388 picks · 904 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 8
Model total75% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed52:14
OG 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 38:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
43% · 26 games59% · 45 games
MedusaSkiter
Medusa
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuragi
58% · 86 games49% · 35 games
Magnus33
Magnus
Venomancer
VenomancerDM
64% · 6 games38% · 67 games
LycanNine
Lycan
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAramis
43% · 3 games29% · 6 games
ClinkzSaksa
Clinkz
Disruptor
DisruptorChuvash
54% · 79 games46% · 47 games
TechiesSneyking
Techies
Game 2prediction correct14:31
OG 35%Tundra Esports 65%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 27:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinybzm
52% · 545 games51% · 112 games
Faceless VoidSkiter
Faceless Void
Windranger
WindrangerYuragi
39% · 51 game40% · 46 games
Magnus33
Magnus
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDM
56% · 63 games54% · 299 games
PangolierNine
Pangolier
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAramis
55% · 27 games55% · 59 games
TechiesSneyking
Techies
Bane
BaneChuvash
57% · 120 games40% · 290 games
SnapfireSaksa
Snapfire
Game 3prediction correct11:28
OG 37%Tundra Esports 63%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 23:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puckbzm
48% · 182 games53% · 310 games
Beastmaster33
Beastmaster
Slark
SlarkYuragi
53% · 74 games50% · 156 games
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Underlord
UnderlordDM
51% · 75 games54% · 99 games
Winter WyvernNine
Winter Wyvern
Clinkz
ClinkzAramis
44% · 8 games50% · 47 games
Bounty HunterSaksa
Bounty Hunter
Rubick
RubickChuvash
43% · 288 games59% · 15 games
Witch DoctorSneyking
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 75%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3