ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:3series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Tundra Esportswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Alchemistsignature
Yuragi · 9 games
Iosignature
Ceb · 9 games
Magnussignature
Ari · 9 games
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 8 games
Dark Seersignature
Wisper · 7 games
Lunasignature
Yuragi · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 6 games
Tundra Esports
Techiessignature
9Class · 13 games
Rubicksignature
Topson · 11 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Sneyking · 10 games
Pangoliersignature
Topson · 10 games
Phoenixoften banned
Whitemon · 10 games
Svensignature
Skiter · 10 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Skiter · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 520 bans
Phoenix
299 picks · 438 bans
Vengeful Spirit
296 picks · 215 bans
Lion
293 picks · 261 bans
Grimstroke
264 picks · 457 bans
Magnus
264 picks · 416 bans
Nature's Prophet
257 picks · 753 bans
Faceless Void
256 picks · 630 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 65%
Hero pool strength52% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 6
Model total53% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:36
OG 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 52:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaYuragi
Naga SirenPure~
Dragon Knightbzm
PuckTopson
MagnusWisper
DoomMinD_ContRoL
EnigmaCeb
Nature's ProphetWhitemon
HoodwinkAri
Techies9Class
Game 2prediction missed24:41
OG 53%Tundra Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 33:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordYuragi
AlchemistPure~
Miranabzm
Queen of PainTopson
PhoenixWisper
Death ProphetMinD_ContRoL
EnigmaCeb
TechiesWhitemon
TinyAri
Marci9Class
Game 3prediction correct34:29
OG 51%Tundra Esports 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 54:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYuragi
Lone DruidPure~
Ember Spiritbzm
Queen of PainTopson
Primal BeastWisper
MarsMinD_ContRoL
MarciAri
Pugna9Class
WindrangerCeb
Vengeful SpiritWhitemon
Game 4prediction missed24:31
OG 53%Tundra Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYuragi
MeepoPure~
Puckbzm
DazzleTopson
Ember SpiritWisper
DoomMinD_ContRoL
HoodwinkAri
Nature's ProphetWhitemon
Vengeful SpiritCeb
Marci9Class
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 53%
Series resultTundra Esports 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4