OG vs Tundra Esports — prediction BLAST Slam VII · Dota 2

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BLAST Slam VII · BO1

result vs prediction

OGwin 1:0

series probability

25%75%

probability at match start · final 1:0

Tundra Esportsloss 0:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Shadow Demonoften banned

Tims · 16 games

44%

Tiny

Yopaj · 16 games

38%

Clockwerkoften banned

Skem · 15 games

53%

Marssignature

Yopaj · 15 games

67%

Primal Beast

Force · 15 games

40%

Windrangersignature

Natsumi · 15 games

60%

Chensignature

Skem · 14 games

64%

Jakiro

Skem · 14 games

50%

Tundra Esports

Phoenixsignature

Whitemon · 36 games

69%

Shadow Shamansignature

Ari · 33 games

70%

Invokersignature

bzm · 31 game

71%

Tinysignature

bzm · 30 games

63%

Timbersawoften banned

33 · 29 games

48%

Doomsignature

33 · 28 games

61%

Batridersignature

33 · 27 games

67%

Beastmasteroften banned

bzm · 27 games

59%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Hoodwink

552 picks · 343 bans

54%

Phoenix

476 picks · 564 bans

51%

Rubick

446 picks · 234 bans

49%

Tiny

428 picks · 357 bans

50%

Pangolier

371 picks · 510 bans

49%

Puck

321 picks · 849 bans

51%

Beastmaster

314 picks · 798 bans

47%

Jakiro

311 picks · 210 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)18% vs 50%

Hero pool strength55% Tundra Esports

Head-to-head2 – 3

Model total75% Tundra Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed23:13

OG 34%Tundra Esports 66%

The model gave 66% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by OG in 32:45.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo