Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ViKin.ggwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Earth Spirit
Saksa · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Topson · 3 games
Rikioften banned
MidOne · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Ceb · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Topson · 2 games
Enigmaoften banned
n0tail · 2 games
ViKin.gg
Oracleoften banned
Seleri · 5 games
Earthshaker
Aramis · 4 games
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tobi · 3 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Aramis · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
BOOM · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
Brewmaster
Seleri · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
231 picks · 492 bans
Void Spirit
212 picks · 267 bans
Mars
203 picks · 364 bans
Earth Spirit
184 picks · 153 bans
Keeper of the Light
161 picks · 264 bans
Phoenix
158 picks · 183 bans
Nyx Assassin
153 picks · 495 bans
Wraith King
144 picks · 185 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:34
OG 52%ViKin.gg 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 53:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetCeb
Wraith KingShad
PuckTopson
Dragon KnightBOOM
LunaMidOne
Death ProphetKheZu
RubickSaksa
EnchantressSeleri
Undyingn0tail
EarthshakerAramis
Game 2prediction correct34:7
OG 53%ViKin.gg 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 30:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinMidOne
Wraith KingShad
Dark SeerCeb
BeastmasterKheZu
Void SpiritTopson
Ember SpiritBOOM
Keeper of the Lightn0tail
EarthshakerAramis
Nyx AssassinSaksa
GrimstrokeSeleri
Game 3prediction missed21:36
OG 56%ViKin.gg 44%
The model gave 56% on OG — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 47:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritTopson
Monkey KingShad
GyrocopterMidOne
Void SpiritBOOM
UnderlordCeb
BeastmasterKheZu
Nature's Prophetn0tail
Shadow ShamanAramis
Nyx AssassinSaksa
GrimstrokeSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Series resultViKin.gg 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3