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DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Virtus.proloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ari · 14 games
64%
Io
Iosignature
Ceb · 13 games
62%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Yuragi · 11 games
55%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Ari · 11 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
bzm · 10 games
40%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 10 games
80%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 9 games
78%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Ari · 9 games
67%

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 20 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 17 games
76%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 12 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Squad1x · 12 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 12 games
75%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Kiritych · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
367 picks · 321 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
330 picks · 478 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 315 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
272 picks · 389 bans
52%
Techies
Techies
261 picks · 176 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 353 bans
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
257 picks · 143 bans
51%
Magnus
Magnus
251 picks · 473 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total50% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:17
OG 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingTimado
49% · 274 games50% · 211 games
TerrorbladeKiritych
Terrorblade
Puck
Puckbzm
55% · 206 games47% · 152 games
Void SpiritSquad1x
Void Spirit
Magnus
MagnusWisper
53% · 270 games51% · 179 games
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Centaur Warrunner
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
44% · 107 games52% · 348 games
Techiessayuw
Techies
Mirana
MiranaCeb
53% · 228 games46% · 195 games
UndyingFng
Undying
Game 2prediction correct22:35
OG 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 45:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTimado
54% · 123 games59% · 153 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Pangolier
Pangolierbzm
47% · 277 games50% · 108 games
SvenKiritych
Sven
Tidehunter
TidehunterWisper
45% · 130 games49% · 151 game
MarsNoticed
Mars
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterCeb
49% · 83 games48% · 150 games
Pugnasayuw
Pugna
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
45% · 105 games54% · 156 games
Shadow DemonFng
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 50%
Accuracy by game2 of 2