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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Snapfire
Snapfire
Daze · 29 games
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Skem · 28 games
36%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Tims · 26 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 24 games
58%
Axe
Axe
MikSa` · 22 games
55%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 22 games
45%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 21 game
48%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
50%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Timado · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 19 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 18 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 18 games
44%
Warlock
Warlock
Fly · 16 games
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Abed · 15 games
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Fly · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
760 picks · 351 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
606 picks · 303 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
599 picks · 555 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
586 picks · 733 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
552 picks · 333 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 538 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
514 picks · 603 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
510 picks · 761 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total76% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:14
OG 64%Virtus.pro 36%
The model gave 64% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterNatsumi
50% · 378 games45% · 625 games
TinyTimado
Tiny
Doom
DoomForce
50% · 214 games49% · 247 games
TimbersawSabeRLight-
Timbersaw
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
48% · 346 games47% · 102 games
Earth SpiritAbed
Earth Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
48% · 269 games58% · 189 games
ChenFly
Chen
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanTims
54% · 253 games50% · 297 games
MuertaHellscream
Muerta
Game 2prediction correct24:8
OG 63%Virtus.pro 37%
The model gave 63% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 26:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverNatsumi
41% · 121 game52% · 293 games
GyrocopterTimado
Gyrocopter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
49% · 511 games54% · 134 games
Primal BeastSabeRLight-
Primal Beast
Mars
MarsForce
46% · 312 games51% · 274 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Mirana
MiranaTims
55% · 82 games52% · 174 games
RingmasterHellscream
Ringmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
52% · 252 games49% · 403 games
TuskFly
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 76%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2