?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 34 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 34 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
Wisper · 30 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 26 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ari · 26 games
42%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ceb · 25 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
bzm · 25 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bzm · 18 games
44%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
emptiness · 31 game
61%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 30 games
47%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 26 games
58%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
asdekor_r · 20 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
rue · 20 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 20 games
55%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
369 picks · 773 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
347 picks · 342 bans
55%
Weaver
Weaver
338 picks · 698 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
337 picks · 241 bans
48%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
315 picks · 466 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
304 picks · 494 bans
46%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
299 picks · 371 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
287 picks · 612 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 51%
Hero pool strength50% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:13
OG 58%Yellow Submarine 42%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 24:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightTimado
43% · 244 games53% · 110 games
UrsaSatanic
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritbzm
50% · 211 games54% · 165 games
Brewmasterkasane
Brewmaster
Windranger
WindrangerWisper
47% · 193 games50% · 330 games
Tinyerase
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinAri
60% · 29 games47% · 284 games
Batriderrue
Batrider
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaori
52% · 316 games50% · 104 games
Elder Titanasdekor_r
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct32:13
OG 60%Yellow Submarine 40%
The model gave 60% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 20:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterWisper
51% · 135 games45% · 164 games
TerrorbladeSatanic
Terrorblade
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightbzm
48% · 216 games44% · 51 game
Broodmotherkasane
Broodmother
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordTimado
47% · 97 games54% · 383 games
Tinyerase
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkAri
53% · 219 games55% · 180 games
Weaverrue
Weaver
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenKaori
53% · 193 games48% · 82 games
Jakiroasdekor_r
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 68%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2