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PGL Wallachia Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:2
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
53%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 17 games
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 16 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 16 games
38%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 15 games
60%
Chen
Chenoften banned
xNova · 11 games
36%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 11 games
18%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 11 games
45%

Yellow Submarine

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 9 games
44%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lion
mrls · 6 games
33%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Htrd · 5 games
80%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ififall · 5 games
40%
Lich
Lich
Htrd · 5 games
20%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
517 picks · 731 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
485 picks · 783 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
483 picks · 473 bans
53%
Muerta
Muerta
449 picks · 369 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
431 picks · 524 bans
50%
Magnus
Magnus
425 picks · 1042 bans
57%
Bristleback
Bristleback
412 picks · 932 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
393 picks · 536 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 25%
Hero pool strength52% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:29
OG 61%Yellow Submarine 39%
The model gave 61% on OG — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 43:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tiny23savage
49% · 295 games48% · 82 games
Nature's Prophetnesfeer
Nature's Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierNine
48% · 332 games59% · 132 games
Lycanmangekyou
Lycan
Tidehunter
TidehunterCeb
55% · 84 games53% · 314 games
Storm Spiritre1bl
Storm Spirit
Tinker
TinkerxNova
52% · 24 games48% · 174 games
Jakiroififall
Jakiro
Batrider
BatriderDaze
45% · 275 games45% · 308 games
Dark Willowmrls
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction correct32:14
OG 57%Yellow Submarine 43%
The model gave 57% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlord23savage
48% · 91 game50% · 221 game
Gyrocopternesfeer
Gyrocopter
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNine
48% · 108 games51% · 189 games
Ember Spiritre1bl
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsCeb
46% · 213 games53% · 137 games
Timbersawififall
Timbersaw
Weaver
WeaverDaze
57% · 188 games50% · 33 games
Venomancermangekyou
Venomancer
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
41% · 154 games55% · 174 games
Tuskmrls
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed21:41
OG 59%Yellow Submarine 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 38:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNine
48% · 92 games50% · 380 games
Dragon Knightnesfeer
Dragon Knight
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlord23savage
48% · 77 games46% · 88 games
Visagemangekyou
Visage
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerCeb
45% · 169 games60% · 214 games
Monkey Kingre1bl
Monkey King
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
45% · 167 games51% · 72 games
Bounty Huntermrls
Bounty Hunter
Clockwerk
ClockwerkxNova
53% · 380 games52% · 131 game
Jakiroififall
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 69%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3