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CCT Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 21 game
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 18 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Nine · 15 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 14 games
36%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 14 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
42%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%

Yellow Submarine

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
re1bl · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mrls · 12 games
50%
Muerta
Muertasignature
mrls · 12 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ififall · 10 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
mrls · 9 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
ififall · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomoften banned
bottega · 9 games
22%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
504 picks · 540 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
453 picks · 497 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
431 picks · 225 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
386 picks · 280 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
377 picks · 365 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
367 picks · 806 bans
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 519 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 527 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total57% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:33
OG 52%Yellow Submarine 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 51:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetShad
51% · 195 games52% · 151 game
Ursabottega
Ursa
Enigma
EnigmaMikSa`
55% · 125 games48% · 139 games
Queen of PainMirele
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStormstormer
47% · 236 games46% · 194 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
WindrangerDaze
52% · 188 games50% · 134 games
LionXakoda
Lion
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLelis
51% · 276 games48% · 402 games
Tuskmrls
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed15:23
OG 51%Yellow Submarine 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 29:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenShad
55% · 168 games47% · 113 games
Shadow Fiendbottega
Shadow Fiend
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStormstormer
49% · 88 games54% · 217 games
Dark SeerInfernal
Dark Seer
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMikSa`
52% · 115 games48% · 77 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Ringmaster
RingmasterLelis
55% · 139 games48% · 208 games
Shadow Shamanmrls
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowDaze
44% · 167 games50% · 62 games
UndyingXakoda
Undying
Game 3prediction correct39:41
OG 52%Yellow Submarine 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 1:06:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShad
45% · 176 games44% · 90 games
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMikSa`
55% · 79 games53% · 202 games
Linabottega
Lina
Tiny
TinyStormstormer
49% · 373 games47% · 217 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Doom
DoomDaze
55% · 265 games49% · 165 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Pugna
PugnaLelis
53% · 115 games50% · 334 games
Tuskmrls
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 57%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3