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CIS Battle 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Yellow Submarineloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 23 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 20 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 17 games
41%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 16 games
38%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Kidaro · 13 games
31%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Lelis · 12 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
50%

Yellow Submarine

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
mrls · 22 games
59%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mrls · 21 game
33%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Infernal · 18 games
61%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
bottega · 18 games
39%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
mrls · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 17 games
59%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Mirele · 17 games
65%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
477 picks · 467 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
377 picks · 209 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
351 picks · 376 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
323 picks · 837 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
322 picks · 890 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
295 picks · 442 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
292 picks · 257 bans
49%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
288 picks · 571 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total67% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:21
OG 59%Yellow Submarine 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 53:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tidehunter
TidehunterShad
51% · 123 games56% · 73 games
LycanInfernal
Lycan
Monkey King
Monkey KingStojkov
57% · 164 games71% · 3 games
Necrophosbottega
Necrophos
Axe
AxeMikSa`
41% · 72 games46% · 196 games
Ember SpiritMirele
Ember Spirit
Marci
MarciDaze
44% · 120 games53% · 194 games
Muertamrls
Muerta
Disruptor
DisruptorLelis
45% · 97 games53% · 110 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Game 2prediction correct34:25
OG 58%Yellow Submarine 42%
The model gave 58% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 36:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShad
60% · 160 games43% · 352 games
Dragon Knightbottega
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackMikSa`
52% · 206 games51% · 176 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckStojkov
52% · 292 games42% · 99 games
BrewmasterInfernal
Brewmaster
Batrider
BatriderDaze
48% · 229 games43% · 226 games
Nature's Prophetmrls
Nature's Prophet
Elder Titan
Elder TitanLelis
55% · 85 games55% · 119 games
BaneXakoda
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 67%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2