FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
OGloss 0:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Zero Tenacitywin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Nyx Assassinsignature
Ari · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
xNova · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
Magnusoften banned
Wisper · 16 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Nine · 15 games
Hoodwink
Ari · 15 games
Invokeroften banned
Nine · 12 games
Chenoften banned
xNova · 11 games
Zero Tenacity
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 28 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 27 games
Dark Willow
jAMES · 23 games
Lion
Pablo · 22 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 22 games
Lich
LeBronDota · 21 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 19 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
531 picks · 723 bans
Clockwerk
491 picks · 571 bans
Batrider
485 picks · 611 bans
Muerta
480 picks · 409 bans
Tiny
473 picks · 575 bans
Gyrocopter
445 picks · 801 bans
Magnus
442 picks · 977 bans
Lion
399 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total62% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:26
OG 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on OG — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 45:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeCeb
Drow RangerRetsu
Morphling23savage
BristlebackNefrit
PangolierNine
PuckStojkov
LichxNova
Shadow DemonPablo
MuertaDaze
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 62%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1