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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 25 games
48%
Tiny
Tiny
Stormstormer · 22 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 21 game
48%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Shad · 21 game
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
MikSa` · 20 games
40%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Stormstormer · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
MikSa` · 18 games
44%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 36 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
55%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 27 games
41%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 25 games
52%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 24 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 24 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Nefrit · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Pablo · 23 games
52%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
594 picks · 296 bans
55%
Disruptor
Disruptor
518 picks · 522 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
389 picks · 1070 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
352 picks · 183 bans
50%
Pugna
Pugna
344 picks · 391 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
343 picks · 586 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
343 picks · 156 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
334 picks · 253 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 49%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total54% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed3:27
OG 51%Zero Tenacity 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 25:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageShad
60% · 52 games52% · 144 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
47% · 305 games51% · 401 game
Storm SpiritMirage
Storm Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMikSa`
41% · 215 games47% · 233 games
MarsNefrit
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireDaze
48% · 218 games56% · 148 games
ChenSe
Chen
Jakiro
Jakiron0tail
49% · 356 games55% · 220 games
RingmasterJeezy
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct27:8
OG 51%Zero Tenacity 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 33:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzShad
49% · 46 games44% · 51 game
Troll WarlordKami
Troll Warlord
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
47% · 223 games53% · 334 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Night Stalker
Night StalkerMikSa`
55% · 96 games51% · 281 game
Ember SpiritMirage
Ember Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonn0tail
43% · 174 games62% · 117 games
ChenSe
Chen
Tusk
TuskDaze
48% · 396 games49% · 152 games
RingmasterJeezy
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction correct28:10
OG 51%Zero Tenacity 49%
The model gave 51% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 24:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinShad
55% · 165 games53% · 196 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Puck
PuckStojkov
47% · 322 games48% · 252 games
Void SpiritMirage
Void Spirit
Mars
MarsMikSa`
45% · 207 games56% · 169 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Enchantress
Enchantressn0tail
46% · 111 games50% · 269 games
SnapfireJeezy
Snapfire
Tiny
TinyDaze
53% · 299 games48% · 218 games
SilencerSe
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 54%
Series resultOG 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3