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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ancient Tribewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Old G

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Resolut1on · 15 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
swedenstrong · 14 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 14 games
50%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Topson · 10 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 10 games
70%

Ancient Tribe

Snapfire
Snapfire
MikSa` · 13 games
46%
Tiny
Tiny
Alexxo · 13 games
54%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
LeBronDota · 12 games
42%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Heaven · 10 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 9 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Alexxo · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
701 picks · 481 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
584 picks · 634 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
566 picks · 1107 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
545 picks · 502 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
531 picks · 1231 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
477 picks · 1048 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
462 picks · 680 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
460 picks · 919 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:33
Old G 53%Ancient Tribe 47%
The model gave 53% on Old G — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 40:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireTopson
49% · 282 games49% · 73 games
Juggernautlil pleb
Juggernaut
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNo[o]ne
55% · 107 games59% · 76 games
ViperMo13ei
Viper
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCeb
52% · 110 games44% · 141 game
MarsBliNcc
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressRodjER
48% · 195 games50% · 337 games
UndyingLeBronDota
Undying
44% · 67 games
Shadow DemonAlexxo
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct38:39
Old G 55%Ancient Tribe 45%
The model gave 55% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 1:08:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNo[o]ne
51% · 253 games47% · 58 games
Drow Rangerlil pleb
Drow Ranger
Enigma
EnigmaCeb
53% · 212 games49% · 94 games
TimbersawMo13ei
Timbersaw
Clinkz
ClinkzTopson
58% · 23 games49% · 73 games
MarsBliNcc
Mars
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterRodjER
51% · 59 games44% · 284 games
RubickAlexxo
Rubick
50% · 38 games
Ancient ApparitionLeBronDota
Ancient Apparition
Game 3prediction missed30:39
Old G 55%Ancient Tribe 45%
The model gave 55% on Old G — the game was taken by Ancient Tribe in 45:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNo[o]ne
65% · 123 games41% · 143 games
Terrorbladelil pleb
Terrorblade
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerCeb
56% · 107 games53% · 32 games
ViperMo13ei
Viper
Dark Seer
Dark SeerTopson
62% · 114 games43% · 226 games
BeastmasterBliNcc
Beastmaster
Undying
UndyingRodjER
48% · 392 games38% · 222 games
SnapfireAlexxo
Snapfire
46% · 113 games
PugnaLeBronDota
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 56%
Series resultAncient Tribe 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3