Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Betrayedloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Old G
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 15 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 13 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 10 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Hduo · 9 games
Tusk
xsvampire · 9 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 8 games
Silencer
Hduo · 8 games
Leshracoften banned
young G · 7 games
Betrayed
Clockwerk
OwnedMe · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
symetricaL · 1 game
Iooften banned
Flash · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Mirage · 1 game
Marci
Shad · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Shad · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
symetricaL · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
752 picks · 479 bans
Tusk
534 picks · 446 bans
Tiny
531 picks · 388 bans
Treant Protector
529 picks · 578 bans
Nature's Prophet
410 picks · 599 bans
Snapfire
387 picks · 265 bans
Death Prophet
376 picks · 632 bans
Ember Spirit
352 picks · 748 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Betrayed
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct3:32
Old G 71%Betrayed 29%
The model gave 71% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 22:28.
Game 2prediction correct12:27
Old G 71%Betrayed 29%
The model gave 71% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 30:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 71%
Series resultOld G 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2