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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
cybercatsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Old G

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 16 games
56%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
79%
Tiny
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 12 games
75%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 11 games
55%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Hduo · 11 games
64%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
young G · 10 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Hduo · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusk
xsvampire · 9 games
56%

cybercats

Tiny
Tiny
Chira JUNIOR · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
forcemajor · 9 games
44%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
zenica · 9 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
forcemajor · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
jesv · 8 games
38%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Alberkaaa · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
forcemajor · 7 games
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
zenica · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
918 picks · 621 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
643 picks · 451 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
545 picks · 872 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 437 bans
47%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
539 picks · 543 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
486 picks · 332 bans
46%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
472 picks · 1027 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
444 picks · 322 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:44
Old G 65%cybercats 35%
The model gave 65% on Old G — the game was taken by cybercats in 40:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNo[o]ne
52% · 264 games56% · 130 games
Faceless VoidAlberkaaa
Faceless Void
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightResolut1on
53% · 179 games47% · 172 games
Primal BeastDkFogas
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierTopson
52% · 363 games43% · 355 games
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
Ember Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCeb
52% · 143 games46% · 212 games
Enchantressjesv
Enchantress
45% · 80 games
Jakiroforcemajor
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct46:17
Old G 64%cybercats 36%
The model gave 64% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 38:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaNo[o]ne
51% · 137 games48% · 38 games
Anti-MageAlberkaaa
Anti-Mage
Monkey King
Monkey KingTopson
59% · 159 games55% · 125 games
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
Dragon Knight
Enchantress
EnchantressCeb
51% · 196 games45% · 80 games
LycanDkFogas
Lycan
Slardar
SlardarResolut1on
45% · 40 games48% · 237 games
Rubickjesv
Rubick
41% · 52 games
Lichforcemajor
Lich
Game 3prediction correct42:18
Old G 64%cybercats 36%
The model gave 64% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 22:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperNo[o]ne
53% · 99 games34% · 81 game
Drow RangerAlberkaaa
Drow Ranger
Riki
RikiTopson
55% · 74 games57% · 83 games
Storm SpiritChira JUNIOR
Storm Spirit
Snapfire
SnapfireResolut1on
45% · 364 games41% · 101 game
Primal BeastDkFogas
Primal Beast
Alchemist
AlchemistCeb
55% · 58 games54% · 123 games
Enchantressjesv
Enchantress
53% · 207 games
Undyingforcemajor
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 73%
Series resultOld G 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3