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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Old G

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 19 games
53%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
72%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 14 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 13 games
46%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
swedenstrong · 13 games
69%

IVY

Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 15 games
27%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Qupe · 12 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
Qupe · 11 games
45%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 9 games
56%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Mo13ei · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Qupe · 8 games
50%
Silencer
Silencersignature
jmn- · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
751 picks · 615 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
614 picks · 533 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
551 picks · 1335 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
551 picks · 1085 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
475 picks · 528 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
471 picks · 965 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
465 picks · 1164 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
452 picks · 639 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Old G
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total54% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:19
Old G 49%IVY 51%
The model gave 51% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomCeb
50% · 312 games47% · 227 games
TerrorbladeOtaker
Terrorblade
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNo[o]ne
52% · 168 games43% · 201 game
TimbersawMikSa`
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyTopson
56% · 564 games50% · 213 games
Void SpiritMoonlight
Void Spirit
Techies
TechiesRodjER
59% · 276 games41% · 74 games
Oraclejmn-
Oracle
48% · 605 games
Rubickrue
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed29:15
Old G 50%IVY 50%
The model gave 50% on IVY — the game was taken by Old G in 33:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaNo[o]ne
61% · 100 games48% · 33 games
AbaddonOtaker
Abaddon
Void Spirit
Void SpiritTopson
54% · 190 games49% · 122 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightCeb
51% · 122 games46% · 109 games
MagnusMikSa`
Magnus
Chen
ChenRodjER
58% · 18 games38% · 64 games
Shadow Demonrue
Shadow Demon
43% · 102 games
Pugnajmn-
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed20:13
Old G 48%IVY 52%
The model gave 52% on IVY — the game was taken by Old G in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingNo[o]ne
51% · 133 games41% · 32 games
JuggernautOtaker
Juggernaut
Tidehunter
TidehunterCeb
52% · 65 games49% · 119 games
Void SpiritMoonlight
Void Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerTopson
43% · 158 games48% · 102 games
MagnusMikSa`
Magnus
Chen
ChenRodjER
69% · 47 games46% · 110 games
Techiesrue
Techies
52% · 40 games
Shadow Demonjmn-
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 54%
Series resultOld G 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3