Old G vs PuckChamp — prediction DPC2S2ЗЕЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

Old Gwin 2:1

series probability

61%39%

probability at match start · final 2:1

PuckChamploss 1:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Old G

Rubicksignature

xsvampire · 15 games

60%

Ursasignature

Shigetsu · 13 games

77%

Tinysignature

xsvampire · 10 games

70%

Crystal Maidensignature

Hduo · 9 games

67%

Tusk

xsvampire · 9 games

56%

Hoodwink

xsvampire · 8 games

50%

Silencer

Hduo · 8 games

50%

Leshracoften banned

young G · 7 games

57%

PuckChamp

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

787 picks · 543 bans

50%

Tiny

566 picks · 397 bans

52%

Treant Protector

526 picks · 569 bans

56%

Tusk

523 picks · 441 bans

48%

Nature's Prophet

439 picks · 723 bans

56%

Death Prophet

411 picks · 795 bans

51%

Snapfire

404 picks · 293 bans

45%

Ember Spirit

361 picks · 849 bans

49%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%

Hero pool strength55% Old G

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total61% Old G

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct21:15

Old G 61%PuckChamp 39%

The model gave 61% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 41:38.

Game 2prediction correct29:22

Old G 61%PuckChamp 39%

The model gave 61% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 51:22.

Game 3prediction correct40:17

Old G 61%PuckChamp 39%

The model gave 61% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 46:59.

Model check result

Model favoriteOld G · 61%

Series resultOld G 2:1

Series predictioncorrect

Accuracy by game3 of 3