Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gloss 0:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:1
PuckChampwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Old G
Rubick
xsvampire · 19 games
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
Leshracoften banned
Lorenof · 16 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
Resolut1on · 14 games
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 14 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 13 games
Doomoften banned
Malik · 12 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
1001 picks · 699 bans
Tiny
640 picks · 466 bans
Nature's Prophet
578 picks · 931 bans
Disruptor
558 picks · 411 bans
Tusk
532 picks · 409 bans
Snapfire
528 picks · 370 bans
Death Prophet
519 picks · 1212 bans
Clockwerk
500 picks · 385 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 62%
Hero pool strength54% Old G
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total54% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Old G 54%PuckChamp 46%
The model gave 54% on Old G — the game was taken by PuckChamp.
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 54%
Series resultPuckChamp 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1