Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Old Gwin 2:1series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Unityloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Old G
Enchantresssignature
RodjER · 7 games
Clockwerk
Astral · 5 games
Keeper of the Light
young G · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Malik · 4 games
Marcioften banned
Dukalis · 4 games
Puckoften banned
young G · 4 games
Bane
Dukalis · 3 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
krylat · 3 games
Team Unity
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 256 bans
Marci
316 picks · 557 bans
Undying
284 picks · 469 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 198 bans
Pangolier
251 picks · 437 bans
Primal Beast
238 picks · 518 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 299 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 106 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Old G
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Old G
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:31
Old G 73%Team Unity 27%
The model gave 73% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 31:15.
Game 2prediction missed42:16
Old G 73%Team Unity 27%
The model gave 73% on Old G — the game was taken by Team Unity in 36:42.
Game 3prediction correct23:56
Old G 73%Team Unity 27%
The model gave 73% on Old G — the game was taken by Old G in 41:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteOld G · 73%
Series resultOld G 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3