ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Old schoolloss 0:1series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Tickleswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Old school
No games played over 6 months.
Team Tickles
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 6 games
Svensignature
Shad · 6 games
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 5 games
Skywrath Mage
NARMAN · 5 games
Tidehunter
BOOM · 5 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Dukalis · 5 games
Clockwerk
Dukalis · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
215 picks · 271 bans
Pangolier
180 picks · 377 bans
Grimstroke
178 picks · 161 bans
Sven
170 picks · 247 bans
Dark Willow
166 picks · 70 bans
Earthshaker
166 picks · 164 bans
Earth Spirit
150 picks · 236 bans
Phoenix
148 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 69%
Hero pool strength62% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Old school 12%Team Tickles 88%
The model gave 88% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 88%
Series resultTeam Tickles 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1