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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO2
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Tiny
Tiny
Boomy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Boomy · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
cml · 2 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
cml · 2 games
100%
Omniknight
Omniknight
cml · 2 games
0%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
MamangDaya · 2 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Lym- · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 2 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commander
woMy · 1 game
0%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
db- · 1 game
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
100%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
MamangDaya · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
33 picks · 67 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
30 picks · 75 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
28 picks · 20 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
27 picks · 41 bans
52%
Mirana
Mirana
24 picks · 27 bans
43%
Monkey King
Monkey King
23 picks · 42 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
22 picks · 40 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
20 picks · 26 bans
67%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 43%
Hero pool strength56% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:58
Omega Esports 52%Army Geniuses 48%
The model gave 52% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 43:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingTino-
50% · 4 gameslittle data
Rikidb-
Riki
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
little datalittle data
DoomMamangDaya
Doom
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBok
43% · 3 gameslittle data
TimbersawwoMy
Timbersaw
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBoomy
43% · 3 games54% · 10 games
Earth SpiritLym-
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
Phoenixcml
little data
Game 2prediction correct29:27
Omega Esports 57%Army Geniuses 43%
The model gave 57% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 39:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinMac
little datalittle data
Iodb-
Io
Bristleback
BristlebackTino-
little datalittle data
SilencerMamangDaya
Silencer
Sand King
Sand KingBok
little datalittle data
Legion CommanderwoMy
Legion Commander
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanBoomy
little datalittle data
Shadow DemonLym-
Shadow Demon
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightcml
little data
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2