Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
CCrewmatesloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Esports
Tiny
Boomy · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 2 games
Earthshaker
Boomy · 2 games
Ogre Magi
cml · 2 games
Omniknight
cml · 2 games
Vengeful Spirit
Mac · 2 games
Weaver
Tino- · 2 games
Crewmates
Abaddon
DFlash · 1 game
Iooften banned
FCR · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
H1j4ck · 1 game
Queen of Pain
4nalog · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
10 picks · 19 bans
Void Spirit
10 picks · 13 bans
Earth Spirit
9 picks · 6 bans
Puck
8 picks · 21 bans
Brewmaster
7 picks · 2 bans
Ember Spirit
7 picks · 7 bans
Crystal Maiden
6 picks · 0 bans
Juggernaut
6 picks · 6 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 50%
Series resultOmega Esports 1:0
Series predictioncorrect