OB.Moon Asian Arena · BO2
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Lilgunwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Esports
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sam_H · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 10 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Sam_H · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
Tino- · 9 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
cml · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 7 games
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 7 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Mac · 6 games
Lilgun
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
377 picks · 171 bans
Hoodwink
349 picks · 127 bans
Nyx Assassin
259 picks · 521 bans
Lina
256 picks · 424 bans
Dragon Knight
254 picks · 343 bans
Winter Wyvern
248 picks · 243 bans
Luna
247 picks · 340 bans
Terrorblade
236 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 31%
Hero pool strength53% Omega Esports
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total58% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:42
Omega Esports 58%Lilgun 42%
The model gave 58% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Lilgun in 41:53.
Game 2prediction missed8:35
Omega Esports 58%Lilgun 42%
The model gave 58% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Lilgun in 26:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 58%
Series resultLilgun 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2