Omega Esports vs Neon Esports — prediction DPC2S—Ю1Д 2 · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO1

result vs prediction

Omega Esportsloss 0:1

series probability

48%52%

probability at match start · final 0:1

Neon Esportswin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Void Spiritsignature

Mac · 15 games

60%

Grimstrokesignature

cml · 13 games

69%

Dragon Knightsignature

Sam_H · 10 games

60%

Tiny

Tino- · 10 games

50%

Alchemistsignature

Tino- · 8 games

63%

Batridersignature

Mac · 8 games

63%

Death Prophetoften banned

cml · 8 games

38%

Ember Spiritsignature

Mac · 8 games

63%

Neon Esports

Pucksignature

Yopaj · 22 games

68%

Mirana

PlayHard · 16 games

56%

Pangoliersignature

PlayHard · 14 games

79%

Sand King

Yopaj · 13 games

54%

Tusk

PlayHard · 13 games

54%

Nyx Assassinoften banned

PlayHard · 12 games

50%

Void Spiritoften banned

Yopaj · 12 games

50%

Death Prophetoften banned

Skem · 11 games

55%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Puck

401 picks · 1010 bans

49%

Mars

375 picks · 609 bans

54%

Lion

372 picks · 192 bans

48%

Grimstroke

364 picks · 367 bans

49%

Void Spirit

316 picks · 502 bans

47%

Death Prophet

307 picks · 680 bans

54%

Tusk

305 picks · 225 bans

51%

Snapfire

278 picks · 154 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)56% vs 38%

Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports

Head-to-head0 – 2

Model total52% Neon Esports

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed17:28

Omega Esports 50%Neon Esports 50%

The model gave 50% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 38:24.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo