Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ZeroTwoloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Esports
Batrideroften banned
Mac · 4 games
Tiny
Boomy · 4 games
Brewmaster
Bok · 3 games
Grimstroke
cml · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
Bok · 3 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Mac · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 2 games
ZeroTwo
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 3 games
Dark Willow
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
CHYuan · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
Poloson · 2 games
Linaoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Ogre Magi
Poloson · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Dreamocel · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
71 picks · 151 bans
Puck
63 picks · 170 bans
Earth Spirit
57 picks · 52 bans
Void Spirit
52 picks · 102 bans
Rubick
48 picks · 25 bans
Undying
46 picks · 70 bans
Monkey King
45 picks · 102 bans
Phoenix
44 picks · 58 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% ZeroTwo
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:16
Omega Esports 57%ZeroTwo 43%
The model gave 57% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenTino-
TerrorbladeDreamocel
BatriderMac
PuckCHYuan
LycanBok
Pangolierxiaoyu154
GrimstrokeBoomy
TuskinYourdreaM
Nyx Assassincml
OraclePoloson
Game 2prediction correct30:10
Omega Esports 58%ZeroTwo 42%
The model gave 58% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 31:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerTino-
RikiDreamocel
Death ProphetMac
PugnaCHYuan
SlardarBok
Legion Commanderxiaoyu154
Outworld DestroyerBoomy
Earth SpiritinYourdreaM
Lioncml
GrimstrokePoloson
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 62%
Series resultOmega Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2