Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Gamingloss 1:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Dreamerswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Gaming
Dawnbreakersignature
CHAAANNN · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
Demon · 5 games
Earth Spirit
Demon · 4 games
Gyrocopter
Mingatte · 4 games
Hoodwink
Demon · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Lissex · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Lissex · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Mingatte · 3 games
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
429 picks · 263 bans
Queen of Pain
378 picks · 493 bans
Mars
350 picks · 499 bans
Weaver
341 picks · 487 bans
Kunkka
279 picks · 473 bans
Death Prophet
256 picks · 389 bans
Grimstroke
253 picks · 172 bans
Wraith King
247 picks · 336 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 55%
Hero pool strength53% Omega Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
Omega Gaming 62%Dreamers 38%
The model gave 62% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 22:58.
Game 2prediction missed19:33
Omega Gaming 62%Dreamers 38%
The model gave 62% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Dreamers in 25:37.
Game 3prediction missed31:35
Omega Gaming 62%Dreamers 38%
The model gave 62% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Dreamers in 56:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 62%
Series resultDreamers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3