Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Gamingwin 2:1series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
LRLa RiKa Vickyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Omega Gaming
Marssignature
Lissex · 11 games
Dawnbreakersignature
CHAAANNN · 8 games
Hoodwinksignature
Demon · 8 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Demon · 7 games
Skywrath Mage
Demon · 7 games
Medusasignature
Mingatte · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 6 games
Mirana
Demon · 5 games
La RiKa Vicky
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
464 picks · 634 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 495 bans
Bane
439 picks · 268 bans
Sand King
418 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 808 bans
Storm Spirit
351 picks · 586 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 396 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 524 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Omega Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% La RiKa Vicky
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:40
Omega Gaming 46%La RiKa Vicky 54%
The model gave 54% on La RiKa Vicky — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 42:32.
Game 2prediction correct
Omega Gaming 46%La RiKa Vicky 54%
The model gave 54% on La RiKa Vicky — the game was taken by La RiKa Vicky.
Game 3prediction missed49:35
Omega Gaming 46%La RiKa Vicky 54%
The model gave 54% on La RiKa Vicky — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 47:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteLa RiKa Vicky · 54%
Series resultOmega Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3