ESL One Raleigh 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 28 games
Marcisignature
not me · 22 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 21 game
Doomsignature
SSS · 18 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
Snapfiresignature
not me · 16 games
Alchemistoften banned
SSS · 14 games
9Pandas
Tinysignature
erase · 17 games
Elder Titansignature
Solo · 15 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 15 games
Lionsignature
lupsione · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
laise · 13 games
Muerta
jesv · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 12 games
Tidehuntersignature
laise · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
482 picks · 401 bans
Clockwerk
449 picks · 560 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 515 bans
Lion
405 picks · 216 bans
Gyrocopter
402 picks · 661 bans
Phoenix
393 picks · 440 bans
Pangolier
367 picks · 590 bans
Beastmaster
356 picks · 911 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 55%
Hero pool strength55% 9Pandas
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total58% 9Pandas
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:41
One Move 42%9Pandas 58%
The model gave 58% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 45:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightWoE
LunaV-Tune
BristlebackSSS
Monkey Kingerase
Ember SpiritDifference
Night Stalkerlaise
Batridernot me
Lionlupsione
Lichso bad
Elder TitanSolo
Game 2prediction correct23:23
One Move 43%9Pandas 57%
The model gave 57% on 9Pandas — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 38:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinWoE
LifestealerV-Tune
DawnbreakerSSS
Tinyerase
PangolierDifference
Marslaise
Enchantressso bad
UndyingSolo
Shadow Demonnot me
Lionlupsione
Model check result
Model favorite9Pandas · 58%
Series result9Pandas 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2