DreamLeague Season 26. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
One Movewin 1:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Apple City Gangloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 30 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 26 games
Marcisignature
not me · 21 game
Muerta
not me · 20 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 19 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 17 games
Apple City Gang
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 7 games
Marcioften banned
flacko · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
Clockwerk
Astral · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
Jakiro
flacko · 4 games
Leshrac
dualrazee · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
507 picks · 696 bans
Phoenix
425 picks · 694 bans
Muerta
416 picks · 307 bans
Clockwerk
409 picks · 398 bans
Bristleback
374 picks · 849 bans
Magnus
370 picks · 983 bans
Phantom Assassin
369 picks · 618 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 495 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Apple City Gang
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
One Move 47%Apple City Gang 53%
The model gave 53% on Apple City Gang — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteApple City Gang · 53%
Series resultOne Move 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1