CCT Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Apple City Gangwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 31 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 25 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 21 game
Muerta
not me · 21 game
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 20 games
Marcisignature
not me · 19 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
SSS · 19 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
Apple City Gang
Pangoliersignature
Norma · 7 games
Marcioften banned
flacko · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Norma · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
Clockwerk
Astral · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 4 games
Jakiro
flacko · 4 games
Leshrac
dualrazee · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
558 picks · 791 bans
Muerta
451 picks · 332 bans
Phoenix
440 picks · 713 bans
Clockwerk
413 picks · 404 bans
Phantom Assassin
413 picks · 741 bans
Bristleback
400 picks · 900 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 1065 bans
Pangolier
385 picks · 532 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 52%
Hero pool strength58% Apple City Gang
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total63% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
One Move 63%Apple City Gang 37%
The model gave 63% on One Move — the game was taken by Apple City Gang.
Game 2prediction missed
One Move 63%Apple City Gang 37%
The model gave 63% on One Move — the game was taken by Apple City Gang.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 63%
Series resultApple City Gang 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2