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FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Закрытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
One Movewin 1:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 1:0
ASAKURAloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 28 games
43%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 19 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 17 games
24%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
not me · 15 games
20%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 15 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
WoE · 15 games
67%

ASAKURA

Lion
Lion
slimeyao · 11 games
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 7 games
57%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
young G · 7 games
57%
Lich
Lich
VaniLLl · 7 games
57%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Infernal · 7 games
57%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 6 games
83%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Infernal · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
475 picks · 609 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
461 picks · 397 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
456 picks · 568 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
436 picks · 542 bans
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 780 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
420 picks · 486 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
404 picks · 901 bans
59%
Lion
Lion
394 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% ASAKURA
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:10
One Move 55%ASAKURA 45%
The model gave 55% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 26:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaWoE
43% · 88 games52% · 33 games
Bloodseeker7jesu
Bloodseeker
Lycan
LycanSSS
51% · 58 games49% · 360 games
Pangolieryoung G
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
46% · 137 games49% · 43 games
TidehunterInfernal
Tidehunter
Lich
LichRein
55% · 88 games52% · 95 games
ZeusVaniLLl
Zeus
Clockwerk
Clockwerknot me
49% · 240 games52% · 80 games
Leshracslimeyao
Leshrac
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 58%
Series resultOne Move 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1