Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Восточная Европа. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 1:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Tiny
Gilgir · 21 game
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
Mirana
Panto · 15 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 11 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panto · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 10 games
Snapfire
xsvampire · 10 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Death Prophetsignature
Nightfall · 14 games
Leshracsignature
gpK~ · 13 games
Rubick
Save- · 12 games
Clockwerksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
Tinysignature
Save- · 10 games
Hoodwinksignature
Save- · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 9 games
Miranasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
794 picks · 551 bans
Tiny
566 picks · 399 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 568 bans
Tusk
520 picks · 435 bans
Nature's Prophet
449 picks · 731 bans
Death Prophet
417 picks · 812 bans
Snapfire
404 picks · 290 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 851 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head1 – 7
Model total73% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:12
One Move 39%BETBOOM TEAM 61%
The model gave 61% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by One Move in 44:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetMunkushi~
Naga SirenPure~
PangolierAinkrad
BeastmasterNightfall
Primal BeastAfterLife
ZeusgpK~
UndyingPanto
RubickSave-
DisruptorGilgir
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
Game 2prediction correct2:31
One Move 37%BETBOOM TEAM 63%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 28:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingMunkushi~
Nature's ProphetNightfall
BeastmasterAfterLife
SlarkPure~
PangolierAinkrad
Primal BeastgpK~
MarciGilgir
MiranaTORONTOTOKYO
UndyingPanto
RubickSave-
Game 3prediction correct27:37
One Move 37%BETBOOM TEAM 63%
The model gave 63% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 45:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetAfterLife
MorphlingPure~
PangolierAinkrad
PuckgpK~
MarciMunkushi~
Primal BeastNightfall
ClockwerkGilgir
RubickSave-
Shadow DemonPanto
UndyingTORONTOTOKYO
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 73%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3