The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 26 games
Tinyoften banned
Difference · 24 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 21 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 19 games
Jakiro
Bb3px · 17 games
Clockwerk
not me · 16 games
Cyber Goose
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 4 games
Shadow Shaman
prblms · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Noticed · 3 games
Shadow Demon
Solo · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Windranger
prblms · 3 games
Centaur Warrunner
Noticed · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
500 picks · 576 bans
Jakiro
490 picks · 444 bans
Ringmaster
457 picks · 232 bans
Terrorblade
359 picks · 721 bans
Ancient Apparition
323 picks · 739 bans
Storm Spirit
323 picks · 505 bans
Tusk
307 picks · 266 bans
Windranger
300 picks · 93 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 77%
Hero pool strength63% Cyber Goose
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Cyber Goose
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:32
One Move 45%Cyber Goose 55%
The model gave 55% on Cyber Goose — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightEyesight
AbaddonTA2000
LinaDifference
Death ProphetNoticed
Centaur WarrunnerCorrupted
PangolierChira JUNIOR
Dark WillowGilgir
Shadow DemonSolo
JakiroBb3px
Shadow Shamanprblms
Game 2prediction correct19:15
One Move 44%Cyber Goose 56%
The model gave 56% on Cyber Goose — the game was taken by Cyber Goose in 52:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinEyesight
Templar AssassinTA2000
Death ProphetCorrupted
BeastmasterNoticed
Void SpiritDifference
PangolierChira JUNIOR
EarthshakerGilgir
JakiroSolo
DisruptorBb3px
Shadow Shamanprblms
Model check result
Model favoriteCyber Goose · 58%
Series resultCyber Goose 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2