Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Tiny
Gilgir · 22 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 17 games
Mirana
Panto · 16 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
Tusk
Ainkrad · 13 games
Snapfire
Gilgir · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Munkushi~ · 11 games
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
918 picks · 620 bans
Tiny
644 picks · 449 bans
Nature's Prophet
544 picks · 873 bans
Treant Protector
539 picks · 545 bans
Tusk
539 picks · 438 bans
Snapfire
486 picks · 332 bans
Death Prophet
472 picks · 1024 bans
Clockwerk
443 picks · 322 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:23
One Move 57%D2 Hustlers 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 25:58.
Game 2prediction missed28:48
One Move 57%D2 Hustlers 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 45:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 57%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2