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CCT Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DMSwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 19 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 17 games
41%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 13 games
38%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 13 games
69%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Rein · 13 games
31%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
WoE · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
not me · 12 games
92%

DMS

Batrider
Batridersignature
aik · 10 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
aik · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
prblms · 8 games
38%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
mellojul · 7 games
71%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Shigetsu · 7 games
57%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
prblms · 6 games
67%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
prblms · 6 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Shigetsu · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
345 picks · 294 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
332 picks · 437 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
327 picks · 252 bans
45%
Enchantress
Enchantress
317 picks · 539 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
297 picks · 281 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
294 picks · 411 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
293 picks · 800 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
291 picks · 471 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:28
One Move 57%DMS 43%
The model gave 57% on One Move — the game was taken by DMS in 58:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWoE
49% · 319 games49% · 346 games
Dragon KnightShigetsu
Dragon Knight
Doom
DoomSSS
48% · 256 games48% · 200 games
BeastmasterDaxak
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierDifference
50% · 452 games52% · 318 games
Primal Beastmellojul
Primal Beast
Snapfire
Snapfirenot me
51% · 305 games51% · 342 games
Batriderprblms
Batrider
Tusk
TuskRein
50% · 251 game51% · 377 games
PhoenixHduo
Phoenix
Game 2prediction missed17:36
One Move 54%DMS 46%
The model gave 54% on One Move — the game was taken by DMS in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaWoE
58% · 210 games44% · 103 games
MedusaShigetsu
Medusa
Timbersaw
TimbersawDifference
48% · 216 games52% · 130 games
BeastmasterDaxak
Beastmaster
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageSSS
47% · 43 games51% · 257 games
Tinymellojul
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
51% · 233 games48% · 165 games
Snapfireprblms
Snapfire
Jakiro
JakiroRein
48% · 173 games51% · 220 games
ClockwerkHduo
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 59%
Series resultDMS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2