Leon Masters #1 · BO2
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragon Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 12 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 10 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
Norma · 9 games
Ursaoften banned
paw · 9 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
paw · 8 games
Sand Kingoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
dualrazee · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Norma · 6 games
Broodmotheroften banned
dualrazee · 6 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
394 picks · 723 bans
Hoodwink
337 picks · 282 bans
Weaver
332 picks · 645 bans
Rubick
330 picks · 220 bans
Clockwerk
320 picks · 470 bans
Gyrocopter
317 picks · 373 bans
Pangolier
299 picks · 536 bans
Dark Willow
292 picks · 346 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% One Move
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total78% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:19
One Move 64%Dragon Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 44:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PangolierSquad1x
Ursapaw
Sand KingSSS
Tinydualrazee
Faceless VoidWoE
MarsNorma
PhoenixRein
Game 2prediction correct30:15
One Move 65%Dragon Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 28:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand KingSSS
Faceless Voidpaw
TerrorbladeWoE
PangolierNorma
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Rubickdualrazee
EnchantressRein
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 78%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2