Фиджитал Игры по Dota 2. Сезон 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 12 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 11 games
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 11 games
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 10 games
Rubick
Gilgir · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
AfterLife · 10 games
Batridersignature
Gilgir · 9 games
Hydra
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 18 games
Batridersignature
Worick · 16 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 12 games
Enchantressoften banned
Lefitan · 11 games
Snapfiresignature
Lefitan · 11 games
Rubicksignature
Lil · 10 games
Treant Protectorsignature
HappyDyurara · 10 games
Disruptoroften banned
HappyDyurara · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 688 bans
Rubick
515 picks · 332 bans
Batrider
435 picks · 921 bans
Doom
427 picks · 923 bans
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 848 bans
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 390 bans
Storm Spirit
382 picks · 870 bans
Beastmaster
378 picks · 978 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total50% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:30
One Move 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 58:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenMunkushi~
BloodseekerKami
Storm Spiritre1bl
Templar AssassinWorick
UnderlordAfterLife
TimbersawCloud
Skywrath MageGilgir
ClockwerkOneJey
LichPanto
PugnaHappyDyurara
Game 2prediction missed3:19
One Move 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on One Move — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendre1bl
JuggernautKami
Monkey KingMunkushi~
SnapfireCloud
EnigmaAfterLife
HuskarWorick
Ember SpiritGilgir
Spirit BreakerHappyDyurara
OraclePanto
Skywrath MageOneJey
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 50%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2