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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 13 games
46%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Panto · 12 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 11 games
36%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Gilgir · 11 games
27%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 10 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 10 games
30%

Hydra

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 15 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Worick · 11 games
64%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Worick · 10 games
60%
Rubick
Rubick
Lil · 9 games
56%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
HappyDyurara · 8 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
HappyDyurara · 8 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 8 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
HappyDyurara · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
511 picks · 546 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
450 picks · 227 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 708 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 629 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
342 picks · 711 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
341 picks · 346 bans
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
330 picks · 794 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
325 picks · 518 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% Hydra
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total64% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:16
One Move 43%Hydra 57%
The model gave 57% on Hydra — the game was taken by One Move in 39:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
49% · 42 games63% · 51 game
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAinkrad
46% · 39 games41% · 38 games
LycanCloud
Lycan
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderAfterLife
47% · 75 games48% · 143 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorXakoda
53% · 26 games52% · 38 games
Dark WillowLil
Dark Willow
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MagePanto
53% · 120 games48% · 32 games
Vengeful SpiritHappyDyurara
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed23:22
One Move 42%Hydra 58%
The model gave 58% on Hydra — the game was taken by One Move in 40:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordMunkushi~
45% · 78 games48% · 298 games
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAinkrad
47% · 79 games56% · 199 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderAfterLife
54% · 63 games59% · 55 games
RazorCloud
Razor
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
46% · 148 games51% · 337 games
TuskLil
Tusk
Rubick
RubickXakoda
48% · 560 games48% · 39 games
Vengeful SpiritHappyDyurara
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 64%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2