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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 14 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 13 games
38%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Panto · 12 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 12 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Gilgir · 11 games
45%
Techies
Techies
Gilgir · 11 games
27%

Infinity Esports

Rubick
Rubick
Kiri · 15 games
40%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Prada · 8 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Frank · 7 games
43%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Prada · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Kiri · 7 games
57%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Adrx · 7 games
29%
Tiny
Tiny
Kiri · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
428 picks · 204 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 501 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
320 picks · 318 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
291 picks · 501 bans
53%
Morphling
Morphling
290 picks · 554 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
289 picks · 478 bans
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
267 picks · 637 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
259 picks · 477 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:16
One Move 50%Infinity Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 38:05.
Game 2prediction correct41:9
One Move 50%Infinity Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 27:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 50%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2