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Leon Masters #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Kalmychataloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 14 games
36%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 12 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
10%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
SSS · 10 games
40%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Rein · 9 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
33%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkoften banned
Wein · 9 games
33%

Kalmychata

Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 9 games
56%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Retsu · 8 games
38%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
antoha · 6 games
33%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Retsu · 5 games
40%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Retsu · 5 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
AfterLife · 4 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
376 picks · 778 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
350 picks · 351 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
341 picks · 245 bans
49%
Weaver
Weaver
340 picks · 708 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 467 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
307 picks · 500 bans
47%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
301 picks · 372 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
291 picks · 616 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Kalmychata
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:18
One Move 50%Kalmychata 50%
The model gave 50% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by Kalmychata in 43:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWoE
49% · 257 games41% · 116 games
Templar AssassinRetsu
Templar Assassin
Dazzle
Dazzleряф^^
58% · 56 games49% · 91 game
Keeper of the LightNattyNarwhal
Keeper of the Light
Underlord
UnderlordSSS
50% · 83 games51% · 152 games
BrewmasterActor
Brewmaster
Batrider
Batridernot me
45% · 218 games54% · 151 game
Weaverxsvampire
Weaver
Jakiro
JakiroFng
51% · 85 games53% · 189 games
Svenantoha
Sven
Game 2prediction missed31:24
One Move 48%Kalmychata 52%
The model gave 52% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by One Move in 46:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterWoE
48% · 217 games48% · 48 games
BroodmotherRetsu
Broodmother
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinряф^^
45% · 171 game55% · 185 games
Ember SpiritNattyNarwhal
Ember Spirit
Mars
MarsSSS
54% · 242 games53% · 238 games
Primal BeastActor
Primal Beast
Sven
SvenFng
50% · 208 games50% · 293 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Snapfire
Snapfirenot me
46% · 237 games49% · 311 games
Phoenixantoha
Phoenix
Game 3prediction missed41:13
One Move 50%Kalmychata 50%
The model gave 50% on Kalmychata — the game was taken by One Move in 38:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightWoE
45% · 115 games57% · 115 games
UrsaRetsu
Ursa
Doom
DoomSSS
48% · 179 games51% · 346 games
TinyNattyNarwhal
Tiny
Weaver
Weavernot me
47% · 180 games51% · 158 games
Dark SeerActor
Dark Seer
Rubick
Rubickряф^^
42% · 324 games52% · 198 games
Enchantressantoha
Enchantress
Jakiro
JakiroFng
46% · 83 games63% · 64 games
Skywrath Magexsvampire
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteKalmychata · 51%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3