CCT Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 32 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 26 games
Marcisignature
not me · 24 games
Batrideroften banned
not me · 18 games
Night Stalkersignature
SSS · 18 games
Bristlebackoften banned
SSS · 17 games
Dragon Knightsignature
WoE · 17 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
Level UP
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 11 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
Luna
Focus · 9 games
Phoenixoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Tusk
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Focus · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
503 picks · 692 bans
Phoenix
495 picks · 793 bans
Clockwerk
478 picks · 479 bans
Batrider
446 picks · 542 bans
Muerta
424 picks · 367 bans
Magnus
416 picks · 1003 bans
Bristleback
395 picks · 912 bans
Gyrocopter
392 picks · 760 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 25%
Hero pool strength55% One Move
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total81% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:10
One Move 66%Level UP 34%
The model gave 66% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 32:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinWoE
Magnus4IVAN
Ember SpiritDifference
PuckMaTson
Dark SeerChodΣX
BristlebackAnkou
MuertaRein
LeshracAtoufix
Clockwerknot me
Game 2prediction correct54:12
One Move 68%Level UP 32%
The model gave 68% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 26:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingWoE
PuckMaTson
Ember SpiritDifference
Morphling4IVAN
MarciChodΣX
Dark SeerAnkou
MiranaRein
TuskAtoufix
Muertanot me
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 81%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2