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Фиджитал игры · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Tiny
Tiny
Gilgir · 22 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Panto · 17 games
53%
Rubick
Rubick
Gilgir · 16 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Ainkrad · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
AfterLife · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 12 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Panto · 12 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 11 games
55%

Lucky Bird

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Rises · 6 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
FrancisLee · 6 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
BlackSoul · 6 games
17%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Rises · 6 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Wij · 5 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
Wij · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yadomi · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
460 picks · 452 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
455 picks · 304 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 399 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
328 picks · 327 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
309 picks · 362 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
277 picks · 143 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
253 picks · 628 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
238 picks · 162 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 21%
Hero pool strength64% One Move
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:37
One Move 80%Lucky Bird 20%
The model gave 80% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 1:08:26.
Game 2prediction correct18:46
One Move 80%Lucky Bird 20%
The model gave 80% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move in 39:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 80%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2