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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:1
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Matreshka Teamwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 10 games
30%
Rubick
Rubick
Panto · 10 games
50%
Legion Commander
Legion Commandersignature
AfterLife · 9 games
89%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Gilgir · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panto · 8 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
AfterLife · 7 games
43%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
Munkushi~ · 7 games
43%

Matreshka Team

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 3 games
33%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
dark · 3 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
dark · 2 games
50%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
NattyNarwhal · 2 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Lagoona · 2 games
0%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
Retsu · 2 games
0%
Pudge
Pudgeoften banned
DkFogas · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
292 picks · 425 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
270 picks · 405 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
257 picks · 439 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
226 picks · 606 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
225 picks · 205 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
221 picks · 189 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
217 picks · 95 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
214 picks · 298 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Matreshka Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:44
One Move 53%Matreshka Team 47%
The model gave 53% on One Move — the game was taken by Matreshka Team in 1:06:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 53%
Series resultMatreshka Team 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1