CCT Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 22 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 18 games
Marcisignature
not me · 16 games
Doomsignature
SSS · 15 games
Enchantressoften banned
Rein · 15 games
Jakiro
Rein · 15 games
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 15 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Lion
Riddys · 27 games
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 20 games
Rubick
Daze · 19 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 18 games
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 14 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 14 games
Dark Seersignature
pma · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
487 picks · 666 bans
Clockwerk
420 picks · 469 bans
Pangolier
358 picks · 532 bans
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
332 picks · 177 bans
Dragon Knight
322 picks · 409 bans
Enchantress
320 picks · 654 bans
Batrider
302 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total58% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:16
One Move 44%Natus Vincere Junior 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by One Move in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaWoE
Morphlinggotthejuice
AlchemistSSS
Magnuspma
LeshracDifference
Monkey KingNiku
Marcinot me
Shadow ShamanDaze
Shadow DemonRein
PhoenixRiddys
Game 2prediction correct18:35
One Move 45%Natus Vincere Junior 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 27:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendWoE
Lunagotthejuice
DawnbreakerSSS
Timbersawpma
Monkey KingDifference
TinyNiku
Dark Willownot me
MuertaDaze
Naga SirenRein
Ogre MagiRiddys
Game 3prediction missed30:21
One Move 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by One Move in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaWoE
Morphlinggotthejuice
SlardarSSS
HuskarNiku
Monkey KingDifference
Primal Beastpma
Ogre MagiRein
GyrocopterDaze
Muertanot me
LichRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 58%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3