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European Pro League Season 21 · BO3
result vs prediction
One Moveloss 0:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 24 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Difference · 23 games
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 21 game
52%
Marci
Marcisignature
not me · 21 game
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
SSS · 16 games
56%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
not me · 16 games
31%
Doom
Doomsignature
SSS · 16 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
WoE · 16 games
56%

Natus Vincere Junior

Lion
Lion
Riddys · 31 game
58%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Niku · 23 games
65%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 23 games
61%
Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 22 games
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Riddys · 19 games
53%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
gotthejuice · 18 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Niku · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
500 picks · 683 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
428 picks · 483 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
373 picks · 544 bans
49%
Luna
Luna
357 picks · 457 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
348 picks · 179 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
328 picks · 463 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
320 picks · 646 bans
53%
Batrider
Batrider
313 picks · 321 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total60% Natus Vincere Junior
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:33
One Move 44%Natus Vincere Junior 56%
The model gave 56% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorWoE
50% · 186 games46% · 298 games
Gyrocoptergotthejuice
Gyrocopter
Pangolier
PangolierDifference
47% · 435 games61% · 48 games
HuskarNiku
Huskar
Night Stalker
Night StalkerSSS
52% · 46 games46% · 281 game
Marspma
Mars
Batrider
Batridernot me
47% · 385 games47% · 260 games
LionDaze
Lion
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiRein
62% · 53 games51% · 218 games
PhoenixRiddys
Phoenix
Game 2prediction correct23:42
One Move 47%Natus Vincere Junior 53%
The model gave 53% on Natus Vincere Junior — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 40:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyWoE
50% · 407 games45% · 295 games
Morphlinggotthejuice
Morphling
Puck
PuckDifference
48% · 314 games53% · 292 games
Primal BeastNiku
Primal Beast
Magnus
MagnusSSS
56% · 198 games47% · 338 games
Marspma
Mars
Hoodwink
Hoodwinknot me
45% · 439 games46% · 141 game
MuertaDaze
Muerta
Lich
LichRein
54% · 29 games58% · 321 game
Shadow DemonRiddys
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere Junior · 60%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2