PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
One Movewin 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
Difference · 23 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Difference · 22 games
Marcisignature
not me · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
WoE · 19 games
Doomsignature
SSS · 18 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Difference · 17 games
Sand Kingsignature
SSS · 15 games
Snapfiresignature
not me · 15 games
Nemiga Gaming
Snapfire
Shishak · 14 games
Hoodwink
Shishak · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
Miyaoo · 11 games
Sven
Lowskill · 10 games
Clockwerkoften banned
antoha · 7 games
Elder Titansignature
forcemajor · 7 games
Jakiro
forcemajor · 7 games
Slardaroften banned
Miyaoo · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
410 picks · 538 bans
Muerta
406 picks · 337 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 387 bans
Lion
354 picks · 178 bans
Pangolier
351 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 433 bans
Beastmaster
333 picks · 804 bans
Gyrocopter
325 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 36%
Hero pool strength59% One Move
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total69% One Move
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
One Move 69%Nemiga Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Game 2prediction missed
One Move 69%Nemiga Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on One Move — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Game 3prediction correct
One Move 69%Nemiga Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on One Move — the game was taken by One Move.
Model check result
Model favoriteOne Move · 69%
Series resultOne Move 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3